Digging into the Numbers: How Many Teams Top at Christmas Actually Win the Premier League?

Introduction

The Premier League title race is a long and winding road, and the first major milestone is often who tops the league at Christmas. This season, two teams, Arsenal and Manchester City, have a realistic chance of leading the league on December 25. But just how important is it to be top at Christmas? We’ve dug into the numbers to find out.

History of Christmas Leaders

Since the Premier League’s inception in 1992/93, 33 seasons have seen a team lead the league at Christmas. Of these, 17 teams went on to win the title in May. Let’s take a look at some of the notable examples:
– In the inaugural Premier League season, Norwich City led the table on December 25, but finished third.
– Manchester United, led by Sir Alex Ferguson, were top of the table at Christmas in 1993 and retained the title.
– Blackburn Rovers led at Christmas in 1994/95 and held off challengers to lift the trophy.
– Liverpool led at Christmas in 1996/97, but finished fourth.
– Arsenal hunted down Manchester United to win the league in 1997/98.

Recent Trends

In the last 10 seasons, the trend has been slightly in favor of Christmas leaders. Chelsea (2009/10), Manchester United (2010/11), and Manchester City (2011/12) all led the table at Christmas and went on to win the title. However, Liverpool led at Christmas in 2013/14, but let the title slip to Manchester City.

Recent Seasons

In recent seasons, the Christmas leaders have had a mixed bag of results. Leicester City led at Christmas in 2015/16 and went on to win the title. Liverpool led at Christmas in 2018/19, but finished third. Arsenal led at Christmas in 2022/23, but fell apart late on as Manchester City retained the title.

Conclusion

While being top at Christmas is no guarantee of winning the title, it is an important milestone in the Premier League season. Of the 17 teams that led at Christmas and went on to win the title, six of them were in the first 17 seasons. In the last 10 seasons, the trend has been slightly in favor of Christmas leaders.

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